- [Announcer] This program is made possible in part by the Backlund Charitable Trust.

Established to educate and create awareness of environmental issues.

- [Narrator] The National Hurricane Center reported 2020 had a record breaking number of tropical storms and hurricanes.

10 of the 20 highest flood levels on the Illinois River at Peoria have occurred in the last 20 years.

Wildfires burned more acres in California in 2020 than any year in the state's modern history, more than double the number of acres of any previous year.

Tornado clusters, where there's an outbreak of multiple twisters in a short timeframe are becoming more frequent.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports a global warming trend as the most recent years continue to be the warmest years on record.

Even as we witnessed these events, there is not concurrence as to the cause.

- Vast majority of global warming that increase in global average temperatures and therefore climate change from that is due to human attributable anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases.

- The climate is changing.

It's always going to change.

I think the key is are we causing that change as a human race?

And I have never seen any real good evidence that that is the case , that we're causing this change.

- [Narrator] In studying climate change, it's important to first understand the difference between the terms climate and weather.

(thunderstorm rumbles) - Climate looks at historical trends to give us a general idea of what atmosphere conditions typically should be in an area at a particular time of year.

Weather represents short-term changes in the atmosphere like daily conditions or weekly forecast.

Weather can vary significantly from what climate trends would indicate.

As one example, average overnight low temperatures for January in Northern Illinois, hover around 11 degrees above zero Fahrenheit On Arctic outbreak on January 31st, 2019 drop the thermometer and Mount Carroll in Northwestern, Illinois to minus 38 degrees.

That set the state record two degrees colder than the previous low at Congress Ville in 1999.

The temperature on that particular night was representative of the weather, not climate.

- What we've seen here in central Illinois, specifically as far as climate is that temperature wise there really hasn't been too much change maybe an adjustment of about a half a degree Fahrenheit or so increase in the last 100 years.

Where we've really seen the changes is in the precipitation that we've received.

And that's not just here in central Illinois, that is all over the Midwest.

We're averaging about a quarter to half inch every decade increase, which if you go back to as far as our weather records go that's about a good four inches or so since 1900.

- [Narrator] Well, the trend shows an annual increase in rainfall, rain patterns are also changing.

More short droughts followed by day (indistinct).

- June was one of the driest June's on record for that area of Tazewell, Peoria and Woodford counties, and then came that really intense storm event that dropped five inches of rain in just a number of hours in Peoria.

We had totals exceeding seven inches in parts of Woodford County, and even the fact that the soil was so dry, it can only take in so much water over a period of time and the rest runs off.

So you may get five inches of rain in Peoria maybe a half inch to three quarters of an inch infiltrated and the rest runs off.

- When you get a storm, it's more likely to be more intense than it was in the past.

Doesn't mean every storm is, but the tendency is in that direction and that's gonna continue to get more and more intense in the future.

- [Narrator] Temperatures in areas to the north and west of Illinois and in parts of Canada have increased more than an Illinois and therefore the air can hold more moisture.

The source of that water vapor is the Gulf of Mexico.

In addition, land use in Illinois also adds to the moisture level.

- [David] We're packing a lot of crops and fields and corn fields and soybean fields hold a lot of moisture and storms are feeding off of that moisture.

- [Announcer] The moisture in the form of water vapor typically needs a non gaseous surface in order to condense into a liquid.

These extremely small particles are referred to as cloud condensation, nuclei, or cloud seats - Because cities create dust and particles.

And because agriculture creates a dust and particles there's more condensation nuclei on the atmosphere and therefore it makes it easier for precipitation to form and come down.

- [David] These storms are very efficient particularly in the spring and summer of utilizing this moisture to create very heavy rainfalls.

And we also have certain times of the year, particularly in summer when storms move quite a bit slower.

And so it's dropping very heavy rainfall amounts across these areas.

And again, it all has to do with that increase in moisture that we've seen.

The periods you have to get some work done in the fields are a lot shorter because you've got these intense, large rainfalls.

They don't dry up Like they should.

2019 we had so much rain.

There was a lot of the corn that people had purchased.

And we had sitting in the shed by the time it dried up enough, we were gonna be able to plant that corn would never mature in the fall.

- [Narrator] If corn were planted in saturated fields in the spring, its roots would remain shallow and not penetrate deep into the soil.

With the onset of a drought, the roots wouldn't be deep enough to find water when using traditional planting techniques.

To counter that, the Isermann Farm has no tilt for 25 years.

- [David] The soil structure is different.

You've got this aggregate stability.

The structure of the soil looks like cottage cheese.

It's held together by the fungi and the other things that are grown in it keeps it together.

Water infiltrates better.

It doesn't run off.

It doesn't wanna move.

The earthworms, they've got holes four foot deep lets the water percolate in - [Narrator] While central Illinois daytime temperatures have not risen significantly over the past century.

The average overnight temperature isn't dipping as low as it once did.

That has changed the timing of the application of some nutrients.

- So it's thinking about the rate and the timing of when you apply your nutrients whether it's nitrogen or phosphorous.

It's the type and the place of where you put them.

- [David] They used to be a lot of anhydrous supplied in the fall and this area.

It would be stable because the ground would be cool and it would not do its conversion to the nitrogen process.

That doesn't happen anymore.

The soils are very slow to cool off and they warm up and cool off and warm up and so that it starts that process.

So we can lose that through the nitrates it leaches through the ground, into the tiles, into the water and it ends up in the Gulf of Mexico - [Narrator] As rainfall increases and overnight temperatures warm.

It brings additional challenges for farmers - [David] Or dealing with weeds that we've never seen before that have come up from the south.

They've had 'em in the south for a long time all of a sudden they're up here.

- [Narrator] Some climatologists project bigger increases in temperature for the remainder of this century which could bring more negative impact to corn and soybeans.

- So we're talking about for the state of Illinois over the century four or five degrees Fahrenheit to two 10 degrees Fahrenheit increase in temperature.

But the previous analysis that I've been part of with agricultural experts have said that we could see as much as a 10 to 20% decrease in yields for corn and soybeans over the century - [Narrator] That scenario is one of the more extreme projections.

Any number of changes could ameliorate that including if the agricultural community addresses farming techniques.

- A quarter of our emissions today in one way or the other are related to agriculture.

And so as we think to the future, we want that number to go down.

We need agriculture to actually sequester carbon and not put it into the atmosphere.

Other examples where agriculture has a lot of emissions is through methane from paddy rice and also from animal agriculture, there's methane emissions.

And that's important because methane actually has a stronger global warming potential than carbon dioxide.

So one molecule of methane actually traps way more heat than a molecule of carbon dioxide.

- [Narrator] In addition to corn and beans, the Isermann Farm has a calving operation with about 70 cows and heifers.

Cows produce large amounts of methane, primarily through belching European scientists are testing probiotics to see if they alter the mix of microbes in the cows ruminant stomach and thereby reduce methane production.

The changing weather patterns have also changed the calving schedule.

- We used to calve into December, January 'cause it would get cold and it would be dry.

And if you feed a cow, give her good feed keep her out of the wind.

She's just fine.

But if she gets wet, she's in trouble.

Well, that's the problem now, she's wet all the time and because we've got (indistinct), we've got wet snow, we've got rain.

So that's changed our calving dates.

It's changed, we have to have a facility, we bring them inside.

- [Narrator] Heavier rainfall impacts urban areas as well as rural.

Hydrology studies show flooding is non-linear in relation to precipitation because of more non permeable surfaces.

- If you have a 10% increase in rainfall we're not gonna have 10% increase in flooding.

We could have 20 or 30% increase in flooding - [Narrator] Hydrologists examine historical records to determine how often a large precipitation event may occur.

It's called a 100 year event.

- [Chris] These 100 year rainfalls.

And again, that doesn't mean that, okay this is only gonna go occur every 100 years, it means that we have about a 1% chance of getting that rainfall in any given year.

Well, we are seeing this occur much more often in the Midwest.

- [Trent] I think the best way to think about climate change for people as it changes the distribution of these things of temperature, precipitation, humidity and therefore it changes the odds, the probabilities of these sorts of events like the flooding and Peoria happening.

- The early part of the 20th century was very dry and all those estimates for 100 year event and other events were smaller than they should be.

Later events at the end of the 20th century.

and in 21st century were much higher and they required a reassessment of the 100 year event.

Most of the (indistinct) infrastructure in the Chicago area and other cities in Illinois are designed to convey much smaller amounts of rainfall than what we have today.

- [Narrator] The current Illinois standard for highway departments is to design projects capable of handling the flow rate of a 20 year flood event - That helps us have some consistency across the state.

We use a 20 year flood guideline.

That's been in place for a long time.

With the recent events that might be something úto be considered as far as future guidelines, possibly looking at that those intensities.

if you design for any, for larger culverts, you might not get some of the state funding.

And that becomes a cost with the local agency or the agency that's doing the work.

- [Narrator] A culvert, more than four feet in diameter conveys water at the base of a bluff near the forest park nature center in Peoria.

Despite its size, it still cannot handle large rainfalls coming off the bluff and down this ravine.

The metal at the bottom of the culvert deteriorated due to salt and heavy flow of rainwater.

A sinkhole developed threatening the integrity of the pipe.

Workers filled the sink hole with concrete, while more concrete stabilized to the exterior.

The work will extend the culvert's life and additional five years until a more permanent replacement can be installed.

The Peoria County budget does not yet allow for a permanent fix.

- Our infrastructure is not set up for some of these more intense storms that we've been seeing in the last couple of years.

Either by age, or by condition, by size, we don't, our infrastructure is not set up for these big storms.

- [Narrator] The water coming through the culvert eventually feeds into the Illinois River.

The big storms have increased river levels.

Momcilo Markus, cites a study that since 1939 the average flows and the peak flows on the Illinois River have risen by 50%.

- Climate change and increase in precipitation is not the only factor contributing to decrease.

Urbanization, lake diversions, and other factors contribute to that.

But climate change or increase in precipitation is clearly a very significant factor for the increasing trend in the Illinois River flows.

- [Narrator] Because the Illinois has the third most barge tow traffic in the country.

High river flows can have a negative effect on commerce.

Restrictions during floods, limit barge traffic.

To reduce riverbank erosion caused by wakes.

Higher flows have resulted in the federal government funding the buyout program for private properties along rivers and streams.

Counties have been buying flood-prone properties along waterways using federal money after a flood disaster declaration.

Peoria County has acquired 145 properties since 1988 along the Illinois River and Kickapoo Creek.

This empty property was once an eight unit apartment building but multiple flood claims qualified it for a buyout.

All purchased property must remain in public ownership and there are development restrictions.

This program is only for properties that have federal flood insurance.

- The intent is to reduce future flood losses.

We can transfer them to other public agencies which Peoria County has done so in the past.

We've worked with some of the townships in the area.

We've also worked with some of the park districts to promote public use and enjoyment of the properties.

Some examples include a dog park.

We have Eagle watching facilities.

- [Narrator] Park districts have a lot of permeable surface but they are not immune from erosion issues.

The water from heavy rainstorms on Grandview Drive in Peoria and Peoria Heights has caused several landslides on the adjacent bluff.

Previous efforts to divert the water from the bluff were not successful.

- So what we're trying to do is hook up those pipes at the top of the hill, take the pipe all the way to the bottom of the hill, channel that under 29 and put it directly in the river.

So that way the rain that falls on Grandview Drive never gets on the slope and it doesn't have that erosion potential.

From a financial perspective, it really handcuffs our board with what they can spend capital dollars on.

If, for instance, this project here, that's over half of our capital budget for one year.

Two-thirds of the water that lands from the sky in the city of Peoria runs through a park on its way to the Illinois River.

So sure you've got stormwater inlets on streets but usually they end up in a creek and usually we end up owning part of that creek at some point.

So we have perpetual problems in Bradley Park with dry run creek, which drains a huge surface of the city.

What we've had to do with a lot of hiking trails, for example where we had bridges, we now have stepping stones, 'cause the bridge is washed out.

And we know if we put them back, they'll probably wash out again - [Narrator] Parks and other natural areas are home to wildlife which can be affected by climate change.

Lizards and other reptiles, regulate their body temperature using the environment by basking in the sun or cooling off in the shade.

A warm spell in late winter, followed by a cold storm after breeding can freeze amphibians.

The timing of bird migration, breeding and nesting are all adapted to specific local conditions.

(indistinct) food supply and reproductive timing can be altered.

In short, all life is dependent on atmospheric conditions.

The atmosphere is about 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen and less than 1% argon.

There are trace amounts of other elements.

And currently only about 410 parts per million of carbon dioxide.

While a small amount, National Geographic reports it is more than has been in the atmosphere for at least two and a half million years.

- These carbon dioxide, nitrous oxides methanes get trapped in the upper parts of our atmosphere.

And when we get the radiation from the sun, a portion of that radiation is absorbed by those greenhouse gases.

Not only as it makes its way toward the ground here but as bounces off of clouds and things like that that traps that warm air.

And that's why we're seeing the heating in some of the areas of the globe, particularly at the polls.

- That's the big worry because the ton of temperatures we're seeing now, or outside of human experience and the temperatures we will see over this century will be well outside of human experience.

- [Narrator] That sentiment is not shared by everyone.

Anthony Watts believes there's a point where the influence of rising carbon dioxide levels will hit a plateau.

- Once you get above about 500 parts per million the additional effect of carbon dioxide salting the atmosphere is essentially minimal.

The atmosphere is response to carbon dioxide.

It's essentially saturated.

It's not gonna reflect that much more infrared back to the surface.

And as a result, we're not gonna see that much additional warming.

- [Narrator] However, a United Nations panel of many international scientists issued a report that if current emissions continue, atmospheric CO2 concentration will surpass 500 parts per million and continue to cause increased global temperatures.

Even small changes in climate and atmospheric composition can affect agricultural productivity and quality in wheat.

Additional CO2 increases photosynthesis, which leads to more carbohydrate production and enhanced yield.

But there is a significant drawback.

The grain has much less protein and the crops are more susceptible to infection.

- But unfortunately that also compromises the natural defense responses of the plant leading to increase disease and also increased accumulation of toxin.

But our research has also led us to find that part of the reason why there is an increase in the toxin is because in particular in the moderately resistant wheat varieties which we would normally use to protect ourselves against the pathogen.

Now those have an increased drop in protein content.

So even though we have an increase in yield, there's more grain that is being produced at higher CO2.

There's also dropping in nutritional qualities - [Narrator] Sweet corn functions at a higher level of photosynthesis than wheat.

So increased levels of carbon dioxide do not improve yield.

And there is also a drawback.

- At higher CO2 concentrations, sweet corn which is primarily used for human consumption has reduced immune system.

So it's more susceptible to being infected by these toxin producing pathogens.

And in combination with drought then you have also an increase in toxin.

- [Narrator] The US Department of Agriculture has been testing the relationship between carbon dioxide and soybeans for 20 years.

CO2 has risen 40 parts per million during that time.

So nature thereby is providing a natural experiment.

Beans grown under the elevated levels have a 15% higher yield, but there is a concession.

- If all you're interested in is yield then CO2 can be beneficial.

Other things that we found is that zinc and iron content in the beans goes down when you grow plants that elevated CO2.

So there's sort of a compromise there in terms of nutrition.

- [Narrator] However, if you combine elevated CO2 levels and drought conditions, then there is not a larger yield.

Another experiment is in its first year.

Testing how ozone effects soybeans.

Ground level ozone can trigger various health problems for some humans.

But scientists don't know how it affects soybeans.

This production field experiment has a ring with small vents to emit ozone.

When distributes the ozone across the beans the experiment controls one other variable.

- [Lisa] The awnings that you see allow us to capture rainfall that falls at night, and then we can grow plants under the combined effects of drought and ozone because it's very difficult to understand how different stresses are gonna interact and impact agriculture in the future.

- [Narrator] There are no results yet, as it is the first year of testing.

The US Environmental Protection Agency lists carbon dioxide, methane, fluorinated gases and nitrous oxides as greenhouse gases which trap heat in the atmosphere.

They derive from both human activity and natural sources.

Carbon dioxide represents about 80% of the gases and methane is about 10%.

Many scientists suggest some of these gases are either pollutants or contribute to harmful effects like ground level ozone.

They suggest improvement can be made through reduction.

- I don't care which approach we'll use, but what we gotta do is we've got to reduce these emissions that is causing the increase in carbon dioxide and methane - But there are ways to alleviate that problem and one of them is green infrastructure.

Rain barrels, rain gardens, green roofs, and others, they may not completely offset the effect of climate change but they will help.

- [Narrator] Carbon dioxide will be reduced with the closure of some coal fired power plants in Illinois.

It's part of a settlement between plant owner Vistra Corporation and the Illinois Pollution Control Board.

Plants that have or will close are located in Bartonville, Canton, Havana, Hennepin, and Coffeen.

- Now it doesn't mean you can't use coal.

Doesn't mean you can't use maybe some of the other sources but you can't let the CO2 go into the atmosphere, you have to have a way of trapping that.

Or and I think this is a no brainer, wind power to some degree, but certainly solar (thunder rumbling) - [Narrator] There is evidence indicating the climate is changing.

But a debate still lingers over the rate of that change and its significance.

- The climate has always changed and always will change.

The one thing to remember, it's not gonna change overnight.

I mean, to the point where it's gonna be drastic for us.

- But now we're changing the climate 10 times faster than nature tends to change the climate.

- [Announcer] This program has made possible in part by the Backlund Charitable Trust.

Established to educate and create awareness of environmental issues.